Is Bank of America Poised to Head Higher?

With shares of Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) trading around $15, is BAC an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Bank of America is a financial institution serving individual consumers, small- and middle-market businesses, corporations, and governments with a range of banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk management products and services. With its banking and various non-banking subsidiaries throughout the United States and international markets, the company provides a range of banking and non-banking financial services and products through several business segments: consumer and business banking, consumer real estate services, global banking, global markets, global wealth, investment management, and other.

Bank of America announced Tuesday that it has resubmitted its capital plan after disclosing a $4 billion capital error a month earlier. The error had caused the company to suspend its plan to return capital to its shareholders through an increased dividend and a share repurchase. Though the company has not revealed specific details of the plan, it has been confirmed that the new plan will be smaller than the previous one, which included a dividend increase from $0.01 to $0.05 and $4 billion repurchase authorization. The company has also said that the revisions will not significantly affect the reported capital ratios and that any reductions will be less than one basis point.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Mixed

Bank of America stock has been pulling back over the last couple of months. However, the stock is currently surging higher and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Bank of America is trading below its rising key averages which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

BAC

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Bank of America options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Bank of America options

21.42%

10%

8%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

June Options

Steep

Average

July Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Bank of America’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Bank of America look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2014 Q1

2013 Q4

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-50.00%

866.67%

20%

68.42%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-2.72%

364.48%

-1.52%

3.46%

Earnings Reaction

-1.58%

2.26%

2.24%

2.8%

Bank of America has seen increasing earnings and mixed revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Bank of America’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Bank of America stock done relative to its peers, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), and sector?

Bank of America

JPMorgan Chase

Wells Fargo

Citigroup

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-2.22%

-5.51%

10.99%

-7.56%

-2.07%

Bank of America has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Bank of America is a bank and financial services giant that operates in a recovering financial industry, the backbone of the United States economy. The company announced Tuesday that it has resubmitted its capital plan. The stock has been been pulling back in recent times, but is currently surging higher. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been increasing while revenues have been mixed, which has left investors pleased. Relative to its peers and sector, Bank of America has been a year-to-date performance leader. WAIT AND SEE what Bank of America does this quarter.

Using a solid investing framework such as this can help improve your stock-picking skills. Don’t waste another minute — click here and get our CHEAT SHEET stock picks now.

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