Where Will Toyota Motor Go Next?


With shares of Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) trading around $113, is TM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Toyota Motor is a Japan-based company mainly engaged in the automobile business and financial business. The company operates through three business segments: automobile, finance, and others. Through its segments, Toyota Motor designs, manufactures, and sells vehicles as well as related parts and accessories; offers financial services related to the sale of its products; and is involved in the design, manufacture, and sale of housing, information, and communication businesses. Vehicles and related products are seeing increased innovation, and Toyota Motor is at the head of this trend. Toyota has been dominating the competition and has been first to provide new technologies, so look for the company to continue innovating.

Toyota Motor, the world’s largest automaker, expanded a 14-month-old recall of more than 2 million vehicles for faulty air bags after supplier Takata Corp. told customers further fixes may be needed. Toyota called back an additional 650,000 vehicles, including Corolla cars, the Toyota City, Japan-based company said today in an e-mail. A total of 2.27 million Toyota vehicles worldwide are affected by the recall because most cars that were called back last year weren’t fixed, spokeswoman Shino Yamada said.

The carmaker has received one report of a seat-cover burn related to defective air-bag inflators. Toyota is the first Japanese carmaker to widen last year’s recall involving Takata’s air bags, with Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. saying they’re studying the issue. Toyota, Honda and Nissan recalled more than 3 million vehicles last year because of defective air-bag inflators supplied by Tokyo-based Takata. Toyota said it determined that the serial numbers provided by Takata were incomplete and excluded some that were potentially flawed. Takata takes the matter seriously and will cooperate with carmakers, spokeswoman Kikko Takai said.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

Toyota Motor stock has been surging higher in recent times. The stock is currently moving higher and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Toyota Motor is trading between its rising key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.


Source: Thinkorswim

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Toyota Motor options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Toyota Motor options




What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options



August Options



As of today, there is an average demand from call and put buyers or sellers, all neutral over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.