Byron Wien: 10 Predictions About the World Economy in 2014

Stock Market Crashing


Byron Wien is one those economic, financial, and political thinkers who looks like a mad genius on a good day and simply like a mad man on a bad day. Currently vice chair at Blackstone Advisory Partners (NYSE:BX), Wien served for 21 years as a U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley and has repeatedly been named one of the most influential people on Wall Street.

What he may be most widely known for, though, are his annual “list of surprises.” Beginning in 1986, Wien began announcing predictions for economic and political events that “the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is ‘probable,’ having a better than 50 percent likelihood of happening.”

Not much from his prediction list in 2013 panned out. Among his predictions was a sub-1,300 S&P 500 and gold at $1,900 an ounce — neither of which came close to happening, as the S&P 500 soared and gold floundered. He did accurately predict that the Japanese yen decline to 100 against the dollar and that the Nikkei trades above 12,000 despite the economy remaining weak. The list for 2014 is packed with equally interesting predictions. Here are Wien’s 10 surprises for 2014.