Can BlackBerry Win the Battle of the Underdogs?

blackberry1Research in Motion BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) was riding high on Monday with a new name tag and fresh upgrade. Analysts at Bernstein Research decided to join the bulls and moved the stock to “Outperform” from “Market Perform” with a price target of $22 on the tail of the launch of BlackBerry 10.

BlackBerry’s dramatic plunge from smartphone industry leader to laggard is old news, and both the company and investors are trying to put the past behind them. Yes, BlackBerry’s market share was once a tremendous 20.8 percent, but the good old days are gone and BlackBerry’s position in the market needs to be evaluated with less weight given to its former glory, and more weight put on where it stands, and where it can go from there.

But that’s no small task. The company’s stock price has been highly sensitive to catalysts over the past few weeks. The underwhelming launch of BlackBerry 10 pulled the stock down 26 percent over a period of a few days. On its first day of trading as BlackBerry, the stock is back up about 15 percent. These tremendous swings represent buying opportunities for bulls with an appetite for risk (or shorting opportunities for bears), but they offer little insight into what the company is actually worth.