The following is an excerpt from a report compiled by Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities.
Maintaining our OUTPERFORM rating, but raising our 12-month price target to $19 from $15.50. Our revised price target reflects a forward multiple of ≈ 16x estimated sustainable EPS of $1.20 (fully taxed). This multiple is in-line with industry peers, and reflects an improving outlook for the video game publishers ahead of the launches of the next generation consoles, likely later this year. In addition, Take-Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) shares should continue to benefit from significantly improved execution, outstanding BioShock Infinite reviews, and the September launch of Grand Theft Auto V, all of which should drive FY:14 growth.
The game has an aggregate review score of ≈ 96 as of the time of writing, making it one of the best-reviewed games ever for the current generation consoles. We have modeled Q4:13 sell-in of 4 million units, due in part to the release date very late in the quarter; however, strong review scores should lead to greater long-term sales than we had previously anticipated.
And EPS of $0.24, compared to consensus of $1.20 billion and $0.18, and guidance of $1.15 – 1.20 billion and $0.05 – 0.20. In our view, Take-Two has little incentive to materially exceed its FY:13 guidance; while there is room for the company to sell-in a greater number of BioShock Infinite units than we have modeled, we do not expect it to do so. We remain comfortable with our estimates, which are slightly above the high-end of top- and bottom-line guidance…