The following is an excerpt from a report compiled by Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities.
This biweekly newsletter lists key events in the movie rental and exhibition industries for the period between December 31 and January 13, including notable rental releases, box office figures, and recent company-specific news.
Movie Rental Industry
Key Redbox releases this year (with domestic box office total in millions from www.boxofficemojo.com):
o 12/31: Looper ($66).
o 1/8: Ted ($219), Ice Age: Continental Drift ($161), The Bourne Legacy ($113).
Key Redbox releases last year* (with domestic box office total in millions from www.boxofficemojo.com):
o 1/3: The Hangover Part II ($255), Cowboys & Aliens ($100), The Debt ($31), Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark ($24).
o 1/10: Moneyball ($73), Killer Elite ($25).
*estimated release date
Over the next two weeks, there is one notable rental release compared to three last year (notable releases are those that grossed over $50 million in domestic box office). DVD rentals for the upcoming two-week period should underperform the comparable period last year, as there was a deeper and higher grossing release slate in the year-ago period.
Redbox Instant by Verizon (NYSE:VZ) recently launched its public beta. At our California Dreamin’ conference held in December, management explicitly stated that Coinstar (NASDAQ:CSTR) will not be required to fund minimum payments to the content providers, with Verizon absorbing the downside risk should the service prove to be unpopular. Coinstar will risk only its capital contributions up to a maximum of ≈ $158 million should the service not succeed, and we expect total Coinstar capital contributions to be no more than 20 – 30% of this figure. Additionally, effective April 1, J. Scott Di Valerio, Coinstar’s current CFO, will succeed Paul Davis as CEO, and Galen Smith, currently SVP of finance at Redbox, will succeed Mr. Di Valerio as CFO. Coinstar will release Q4 earnings on February 7 and will host an analyst day in San Francisco on February 27.
Few catalysts remain for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). We continue to believe that domestic streaming growth will slow in 2013, as Netflix has already converted the vast majority of potential streaming subs on mobile devices, consoles, and smart TVs into paying subs, and the company faces competition from the Redbox Instant service. Consensus estimates for domestic earnings power appear overly skewed in favor of domestic streaming, which we think generates ≈$1.20/share, and we believe that Netflix’s DVD business (≈$3.00/share) will decline as international expansion (a loss of ≈$4.20/share) continues, making profitability in 2013 unlikely. We continue to think the stock is overvalued, which we believe will become evident when Netflix reports its Q4 earnings on January 23.
Q4 box office ended up…