Shares of Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) tripped over an analyst comment on Monday morning and fell as much as 7.6 percent before bouncing back slightly. RBC Capital predicts that the company’s stock will will fall after the BlackBerry 10 event on Wednesday because many of the details of the new platform have been leaked already. RIM’s BlackBerry 10 launch has been framed as an all-or-nothing ordeal for months, and just two days before the event it’s clear that investor sentiment is all over the place.
The stock is up nearly 50 percent since the beginning of the year, climbing from $12 to nearly $17 in a matter of weeks following a post-earnings plunge in December. RIM’s third-quarter report for fiscal 2013 showed a 47 percent year-on-year drop in revenue to $2.7 billion, and GAAP net income was $0.02 per diluted share, compared to $0.51 in the year-ago period. Adjusted net income came in at a loss of $0.22 per share.
The key stat out of the report was “approximately 79 million users,” which was backed up by 6.9 million smartphone shipments. Many observers have come to expect that these remaining users are die-hard customers who are likely to upgrade to BB10, suggesting at least a moderately healthy reception. The analysts at RBC Capital are forecasting 10 million BB10 sales in 2013, but are also expecting margins to drop once again. RIM’s gross margin fell from 27.2 percent in the third quarter of the company’s fiscal 2012 to 26.0 percent in the third quarter of fiscal 2013.