Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY) is expected to report earnings on Friday, July 26th. The whisper number is $0.28, two cents behind the analysts’ estimate. WY has a 71 percent positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 10 of the 14 earnings reports for which we have data).
– Beat whisper: 10 quarters
– Met whisper: 0 quarters
– Missed whisper: 4 quarters
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of +1.9 percent comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -3.9 percent within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. Although the strongest price moves are as expected, the overall average price move is ‘negative’ (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings. The company has not had a whisper number since April 2012.
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John Scherr is the founder and President of WhisperNumber.com, an independent financial research firm focused on earnings expectations. He is a regular contributor to CNBC and Fox Business Network, and has been featured in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, and MarketWatch. He is considered a leading expert on ‘whisper numbers’ and post earnings price movement analysis. WhisperNumber.com provides specific earnings trade alerts to take advantage of earnings report price movement with their Whisper Reactors subscription service.
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