Near-term volatility will continue for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), with a third straight earnings miss not entirely out of the question, according to engineering and finance expert Sammy the Walrus IV, who writes a Tumblr blog called AAPL Orchard.
What is Apple Facing?
“Apple has missed Wall Street consensus EPS [earnings per share] for the past two quarters, and unless estimates come down in the following weeks, a third miss isn’t out of the question,” Sammy writes. “While it is hard to point to any one factor as driving a fundamental change in Apple’s operating performance, Apple’s prior two quarters have contained a few concerning metrics, including contracting margins and declining iPad and iPhone growth. Did the weak global economy finally catch up to Apple? Were product release cycles continuing to wreck havoc with consumer demand?”
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He projects revenue for the quarter ending December at $53.1 billion, above the Apple guidance of $52.0 billion, but below the Wall Street consensus figure of $54.5 billion. Earnings will be $12.75 per share, while analyst consensus is of $13.33. Gross margin will be 37.9 percent, according to Sammy’s prediction, again below the consensus of 38.4 percent. “Margin remains a key near-term unknown,” he writes.