Famed tech investor Fred Wilson of New York’s Union Square Ventures has predicted that by 2020, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will no longer be the biggest tech company in the world. In fact, he doesn’t think it will even be in the top three biggest technology companies in terms of market capitalization.
At TechCrunch’s Disrupt Conference in New York City on Monday, Wilson said that the top three tech companies in 2020 will be Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), and “one that we’ve never heard of.”
“I think that they’re too rooted to the hardware, and I think that hardware is increasingly becoming more a commodity. They don’t have anything in cloud to speak of, and the stuff they have in the cloud is largely not good. I just don’t think that they think about data and the cloud in the way they need to think about things,” Wilson said of Apple.
Wilson isn’t the only tech analyst feeling not so optimistic about Apple’s future. Earlier this year, Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes, a longtime Apple bull, downgraded Apple stock from Overweight to Equal Weight. “Frankly, we just couldn’t quite bring ourselves to use smart watches or TVs as reasons to raise numbers — nor were we fully convinced that these products could move the needle like new categories did in the old days,” wrote Reitzes. “As a result, we believe it is time to step aside, given a maturing smart phone market.”
Reitzes also believes that the company is simply relying too heavily on hardware and not giving enough thought to the cloud. He even went so far as to compare Apple to Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), something that doesn’t exactly paint a rosy picture for the Cupertino, California-based company.