The 25 Countries That Will Be Screwed By A World Food Crisis

Concerned about whether you have enough food in your fridge? How about for the worst case scenario?

Japanese investment bank Nomura produced a research report detailing the countries that would be crushed in a food crisis.

Their description of a food crisis is a prolonged price spike. They calculate the states that have the most to lose by a formula including:

  • Nominal GDP per capita in USD at market exchange rates.
  • The share of food in total household consumption.
  • Net food exports as a percentage of GDP.

We’ve got the top 25 countries in danger here and the list, including a major financial center, may surprise you.

#25 Venezuela

#25 Venezuela

GDP per capita in USD: $11,246Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 32.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.0%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#24 Vietnam

#24 Vietnam

GDP per capita in USD: $1,051Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 50.7%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.8%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#23 Latvia

#23 Latvia

GDP per capita in USD: $14,908Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 34.3%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#22 China

#22 China

Image: Tom Booth via Flickr

GDP per capita in USD: $3,267Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 39.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.3%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#21 India

#21 India

Image: Woodlouse via Flickr

GDP per capita in USD: $1,017Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.5%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.3%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#20 Ukraine

#20 Ukraine

Image: AP

GDP per capita in USD: $3,899Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 61.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.9%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#19 Bulgaria

#19 Bulgaria

Image: AP

GDP per capita in USD: $6,546Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.5%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.1%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#18 Tunisia

#18 Tunisia

GDP per capita in USD: $3,903Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 36.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#17 Dominican Republic

#17 Dominican Republic

GDP per capita in USD: $4,576Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 38.3%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#16 Libya

#16 Libya

Image: Wikipedia

GDP per capita in USD: $14,802Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 37.2%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.7%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#15 Pakistan

#15 Pakistan

GDP per capita in USD: $991Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 47.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.4%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#14 Kenya

#14 Kenya

Image: AP

GDP per capita in USD: $783Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 45.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.8%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#13 Philippines

#13 Philippines

Image: Wikimedia Commons

GDP per capita in USD: $1,847Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 45.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.0%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#12 Romania

#12 Romania

GDP per capita in USD: $9,300Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.4%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#11 Angola

#11 Angola

Image: Economist Intelligence Unit

GDP per capita in USD: $4,714Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 46.1%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.4%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#10 Azerbaijan

#10 Azerbaijan

Image: Traveler.AZ

GDP per capita in USD: $5,315Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 60.2%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.6%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#9 Hong Kong

#9 Hong Kong

Image: noii’s on flickr

GDP per capita in USD: $30,863Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 25.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -4.4%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#8 Sudan

#8 Sudan

GDP per capita in USD: $1,353Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 52.9%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.3%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#7 Sri Lanka

#7 Sri Lanka

GDP per capita in USD: $2,013Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 39.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.7%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#6 Egypt

#6 Egypt

Image: AP

GDP per capita in USD: $1,991Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 48.1%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.1%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#5 Lebanon

#5 Lebanon

GDP per capita in USD: $6,978Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 34.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -3.9%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#4 Nigeria

#4 Nigeria

GDP per capita in USD: $1,370Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 73.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.9%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#3 Algeria

#3 Algeria

GDP per capita in USD: $4,845Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 53.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.8%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#2 Morocco

#2 Morocco

GDP per capita in USD: $2,769Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 63.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.1%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#1 Bangladesh

#1 Bangladesh

GDP per capita in USD: $497Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 53.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -3.3%

Note: Nomura’s index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

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