10 States That Say ‘Yes’ to Donald Trump
Following the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump has officially become the nominee for president in the 2016 election. Whether you believe Trump can truly make America great again or you plan to vote for anyone else come Election Day, there’s no denying that Trump has more supporters than anyone thought possible even a year ago. Most election models have presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading the race, but it’s guaranteed to be closer than most people thought at one time.
FiveThirtyEight runs election simulations through a model that correctly predicted the 2008 and 2012 elections. This year, the team simulated 2000 separate election outcomes, based on various ways Trump and Clinton could win electoral votes. As it currently stands leading into the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton has a 58.2% chance of winning the election in November, when the models take into account polling data, economic conditions, and historical information. (FiveThirtyEight calls it their “polls-plus” model, for those of you who check it out for yourselves.) According to that same algorithm, Trump has a 41.7% chance of taking up residency in the White House.
However, there are several more months to go before Americans head to the polls, and anything can happen. In the meantime, Trump is all but guaranteed to win several states in November. According to most predictions, Trump has the greatest lead in states throughout the South and Midwest, though there are pockets of supporters across the entire nation. This lines up with an analysis from Gallup, which shows the states that are solidly Republican versus Democrat, at least in terms of voter registration and party affiliation.
We took a look at the predictions of FiveThirtyEight, along with other prediction models from Real Clear Politics and Gallup, to determine which states are most loyal to Trump. So far, these 10 states have the highest likely margins of voting for Trump in the 2016 election.
10. Alaska (tie)
By FiveThirtyEight’s predictions, Alaska is expected to vote for Trump by a margin of 15.2 points, tied for the 10th-highest margin of victory right now. Trump has a 90% chance of winning the state, but it’s by a smaller share of the votes than most states that are solidly Republican. FiveThirtyEight expects Trump to win 51.5% of the vote, compared to Clinton’s 36.2% share. (Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is predicted to receive a respectable 10.5% of the vote in Alaska, explaining why Trump should win even without landslide support.)
9. Tennessee (tie)
Tennessee might tie with Alaska in terms of voting margins, but Trump’s likelihood of winning the state is much higher. FiveThirtyEight expects the billionaire businessman to carry the state easily, predicting that he has a 97% chance of winning in Tennessee. He’s also expected to receive 54.2% of the votes in the state, slightly higher than Alaska. Of the states that Real Clear Politics says are “Solid Trump,” Tennessee earns him the highest number of electoral votes, with 11 total.
We head deeper into the South for Trump’s next biggest supporting state. Trump is expected to win Louisiana by a margin of 17.2 points, and has a probability of 98.4% of doing exactly that. As the margins between Trump and Clinton grow, so does his anticipated share of the popular vote. In Louisiana, Trump is expected to receive 55.1% of the vote, compared to Clinton’s 37.7%. Louisiana is the only state on this list that Real Clear Politics doesn’t classify as “Solid Trump.” However, the state is deemed as “Likely Trump,” the next-closest designation.
Bill Clinton might have served as governor of Arkansas for 12 years and won his home state twice in his own successful presidential bids, but he has admitted he might not win Arkansas if he were on the ballot in the present era. As it stands now, neither will his wife. Trump has the seventh-highest anticipated margin of victory in the southern state, at 17.5 points. Clinton only has a 1.9% chance of winning Arkansas, compared to Trump’s likelihood of 98%. Trump is also predicted to command 54.7% of the vote.
The Plains states also favor Trump when it comes to polling and historical data. Trump is expected to win Nebraska by a margin of 18.1 points, and has a 97% chance of doing so. He’s predicted to earn 54.6% of the vote, compared to Clinton’s 36.5%.
Trump continues to roll through the South, picking up votes as he goes. His expected margin of victory in Alabama is 19.7 points, with a whopping 98.9% chance of winning the state. He’s also expected to win 56.5% of the vote. Next to Tennessee, Alabama yields the highest number of electoral votes in states that are “Solid Trump,” with nine votes going his way.
4. West Virginia
Trump’s expected margin of victory increases dramatically with West Virginia, as he’s predicted to best Clinton by 24.5 points. Trump has a 99.4% chance of winning the state, and is expected to win 58.5% of the vote on Election Day. That’s quite a difference from its eastern counterpart of Virginia, which is a key battleground state in the election this year. (Clinton leads Trump in the polling in Virginia so far, and could hold that lead after naming Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate.)
Idaho is the Westernmost state in the contiguous United States that Trump can count on in the election. Trump’s expected margin of victory is 24.8 points, and his chances of winning the state sit at 99.5%. His share of the vote is expected to be 58.6%.
Trump’s predicted margin of victory in Oklahoma is 27.4 points, with a clinching 99.9% chance of winning the state. He’s also expected to receive 60.7% of the vote, the largest share of any state on this list.
Long a stalwart supporter of Republican candidates, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Wyoming is expected to be strongly in Trump’s camp come Election Day in November. Trump’s expected margin is a whopping 30.6 points, with a 98.2% chance of winning the three electoral votes that come from the state. Trump’s anticipated share of the vote trails just behind his share in Oklahoma, with a predicted 59.9%.