Oscar Odds: Vegas Believes This Movie Will Win Best Picture

Betting isn’t just for guessing Super Bowl matchups or picking World Series winners anymore. You can bet on almost anything, including international sports, and that includes the Academy Awards. The Oscars are the most popular awards show out there by a mile, and getting people to gamble on the outcomes is big business. Otherwise, why would so many online outlets offer odds? When the stars walk the red carpet for the Academy Awards on Feb. 24, 2019, they’ll be there first hand to see which movie tops them all. If you think you know the answer, then you might want to place a bet, but only after you see the Oscar odds for best picture.

Which movie has the best chance to win for best picture?

Roma director Alfonso Cuaron

Director Alfonso Cuarón and actress Yalitza Aparicio at the Los Angeles premiere of Roma in 2018. | Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Before we reveal the Oscar odds for best picture, we have to mention one thing — you can’t legally bet on the Academy Awards in Las Vegas.

“You cannot bet legally on the Oscars in Las Vegas or anywhere in the state of Nevada. They have a thing where they’re very, very careful,” Benjamin Eckstein, the creator and writer of America’s Line, tells A.V. Club. “The Nevada Gaming Commission does not allow any bets or wagers on events for which the results are already known. PricewaterhouseCoopers, the geeks who come out every time with the briefcase, knows the results. Not that it ever leaks out, but it could. If it did, it could be a real black eye.

However, you can place a wager online with any one of a dozen or more gambling sites. These are the Oscar odds for best picture from gambling site bwin.

  • Vice: +5000 (50-1)
  • Black Panther: +3300 (33-1)
  • Bohemian Rhapsody: +1800 (18-1)
  • A Star is Born: +1000 (10-1)
  • BlacKkKlansman: +900 (9-1)
  • The Favorite: +800 (8-1)
  • Green Book: +375 (3.75-1)
  • Roma: -111 (1-1.1)

Roma remains the odds-on favorite to win, just like it was before awards season kicked into high gear. It’s Alfonso Cuarón’s semi-autobiographical drama shot in black-and-white, and it’s Netflix’s first best picture nominee. That means you can watch it at home anytime, provided you have a Netflix account.

What do we know about Alfonso Cuarón?

movie director Alfonso Cuarón has the best Oscar odds for best picture

Alfonso Cuarón’s directing resume is impressive.| Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Alfonso Cuarón doesn’t have a ton of big-time Hollywood movies to his name, but the short list is impressive. After directing the Great Expectations remake in 1998, Cuarón went on to helm Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Children of Men (with its phenomenal tracking shot), and the Academy Award-winning Gravity.

Cuarón’s Hollywood successes give him a healthy net worth, but they could work against him at the 2019 Oscars.

What you need to know before placing your bet

Outside the odds and reviews, there are a few things to consider about the films with the best Oscar odds for best picture.

In the case of Cuarón, it’s important to remember how rare it is for someone to win the Oscar in back-to-back bids. He won in 2014 for Gravity, which was his last feature film. Alejandro G. Iñárritu won consecutive Oscars for directing in 2015-16, but winning in back-to-back outings almost never happens.

Director, producer, and screenwriter Adam McKay

Adam McKay might be a dark horse favorite to win another Oscar. | Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

The Academy’s idiosyncrasies also factor into the race. Adam McKay’s Vice would be a good fit for the statue, based on his personal history at the Oscars and the perceived thinking of Academy voters.

Who is hosting the Oscars in 2019?

We know the nominees for best picture, but who will helm the show? At this point, probably no one.

The Academy tagged comedian Kevin Hart as host, but he backed out after some controversial tweets came to light.

Producers could scramble to find a host, but it seems more likely no one will fill the slot. Without anyone hosting the show, plan on seeing various celebrities introduce segments throughout the night.

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