While you may not be allowed to legally bet on the Oscars, that hasn’t stopped Vegas oddsmakers from predicting which nominees have the best shot at winning this year. The company America’s Line recently put together the (hypothetical) odds for the six biggest awards of the night, including Best Director, Best Picture, and the four top acting categories. So which of the 2016 nominees are the smartest bets? Here’s a look at the current favorites.
1. Best Picture
Spotlight, 4 to 5
The Revenant, 6 to 5
The Big Short, 8 to 1
The Martian, 8 to 1
Mad Max: Fury Road, 20 to 1
Bridge of Spies, 30 to 1
Room, 40 to 1
Brooklyn, 50 to 1
Though Spotlight is the current top contender for the Best Picture win, it’s not necessarily a sure thing. With 4 to 5 odds, the movie is still in a pretty tight race against The Revenant, which has 6 to 5 odds.
2. Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), 1 to 5
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), 5 to 1
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), 10 to 1
Matt Damon (The Martian), 20 to 1
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), 25 to 1
Unsurprisingly, Vegas odds — like everyone else — say this is DiCaprio’s year. The acclaimed actor is the clear favorite, with the closest runner-up being Steve Jobs‘s Michael Fassbender.
3. Best Actress
Brie Larson (Room), 1 to 3
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), 7 to 2
Cate Blanchett (Carol), 6 to 1
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), 8 to 1
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), 25 to 1
As in the Best Actor category, the Best Actress race is not a close competition. As can be seen by the odds illustrated above, Larson is the favorite by far.
4. Best Supporting Actor
Sylvester Stallone (Creed), 4 to 5
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), 7 to 5
Tom Hardy (The Revenant), 8 to 1
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), 10 to 1
Christian Bale (The Big Short), 12 to 1
The Best Supporting Actor category is proving to be another tough competition among oddmakers, with Sylvester Stallone at 4 to 5, slightly topping Mark Rylance at 7 to 5 odds.
5. Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara (Carol), 1 to 2
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), 3 to 1
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), 7 to 2
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), 10 to 1
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight), 50 to 1
Though Alicia Vikander has been one of the rumored frontrunners in the lead-up to the Oscars, Vegas odds have Rooney Mara well in the lead, with the odds of 1 to 2. Kate Winslet is runner-up, at 2 to 1 odds.
6. Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), 1 to 2
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), 3 to 1
Adam McKay (The Big Short), 5 to 1
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), 8 to 1
Lenny Abrahamson (Room), 20 to 1
The Best Director race is pretty clear cut, at least according to America’s Line. Innaritu, the director of The Revenant, is the obvious frontrunner, with 1 to 2 odds.