Oscars 2020: New Report Reveals What Movie Most People Think Will Win Best Picture

The Academy Awards are coming up fast. For months, industry insiders and cinephiles have been trying to assess which films will win big at the Oscars. But for all the time spent guessing, you never can tell when the academy will spring a surprise or two on audiences.

In this year’s Best Picture race, nine films are vying for Oscar’s top prize. Yet, unlike some other years, the precursors — the Golden Globes, the various guild awards, the BAFTAs, etc. — don’t paint a concrete picture on what will take the night’s biggest award.

Now a new report further complicates things with a wild prediction which film will win Best Picture.

The 92nd Annual Academy Awards
The 92nd Annual Academy Awards | Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Most people believe Greta Gerwig was snubbed for ‘Little Women’

For its latest study, interactive content platform Apester polled more than 62,000 people worldwide across a variety of premium publisher sites. The focus this time was on determining the general consensus among consumers regarding the upcoming 2020 Academy Awards.

For example, the most popular response regarding the year’s biggest Oscar snub was Greta Gerwig for Little Women. The film received six nominations, including Best Adapted Screenplay for Gerwig. However, 22 percent of respondents felt she should have also been up for Best Director.

Even though no women were included in the Best Director category this year, 80 percent of those polled still do not believe a Best Female Director category should be added to the ceremony next year. In the past, the academy has toyed with the idea of adding categories like Best Popular Film to appease the Oscars fan base.

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According to the poll, this is the frontrunner for Best Picture

Speaking of controversial Academy Awards decisions, the show has decided to move forward without a host for the second consecutive year. But 67 percent of respondents want the Oscars to bring back the host format. Of course, stars like Bob Hope, Billy Crystal, Johnny Carson, and Whoopi Goldberg have hosted the show in the past.

But the most intriguing result of the study is which movie most people predict will win Best Picture. According to Apester, 55 percent of those polled believe Todd Phillips’ Joker will be named Best Picture. The R-rated film stars Joaquin Phoenix as the DC Comics supervillain.

While the academy clearly loves Joker — it received 11 nominations, more than any other film this year — it isn’t expected to take home Best Picture. Perhaps most respondents have an elevated view of its chances because of the film’s commercial success. With more than $1 billion worldwide, Joker is the biggest box office hit among the nominees by a significant margin.

But which movie will win Best Picture at the Oscars?

Among most industry insiders, Joker is the frontrunner for Best Actor for Phoenix and composer Hildur Guðnadóttir will likely win Best Original Score. But beyond that, the film isn’t in the best position to walk away with much, especially in the case of Best Picture.

As awards season has persisted, the race has shifted considerably. Pundits pegged Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Irishman as leaders for a while. But the subsequent victories and consistent buzz for 1917 and Parasite means Best Picture is likely down to one of those two. Even Jojo Rabbit has an outside chance, given its recent screenplay wins and strong support in other categories.

Again, many of the other Best Picture nominees are far from blockbusters though. And even the more financially successful films — such as Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 — haven’t hit the public consciousness like Joker has. Despite its critics, Phillips’ film kicked off a phenomenon. At least if Joker doesn’t win big, Phillips and Phoenix will have another shot when the sequel inevitably comes around.