Does Scarlett Johansson’s Double Oscar-Nominee Status Really Mean She’s More Likely To Win?

It’s undeniable that 2019 was an incredible year for Scarlett Johansson. Not only did she star in the highest-grossing film of all time, Avengers: Endgame, and film her first solo MCU adventure, Black Widow, but she appeared in two other notable films. Now, she’s up for not one, but two Academy Awards. What are her chances of winning? Let’s find out.

Scarlett Johansson starred in ‘Jojo Rabbit’ and ‘Marriage Story’

Though she started the year with a big-budget superhero flick, Johansson made very different choices with her other 2019 films. First up was Jojo Rabbit, which opened in November and featured the actress as the mother of a young boy living in Germany at the end of World War II.

A few months prior, Johansson’s drama Marriage Story had its debut at the Venice Films Festival. In it, she portrays Nicole, a woman going through a divorce from her husband. The movie had a limited theatrical release (also in November), but most have only seen it more recently after it began airing on Netflix in Dec. 2019.

The 2020 Academy Award nominees have been announced

Awards season is certainly upon us. On Jan. 13, 2020, the Academy Award nominations for films released in 2019 were announced. Both Jojo Rabbit and Marriage Story earned a total of six nominations. And for the first time, Johansson is among those up for Oscars.

The actress was nominated alongside Kathy Bates, Laura Dern, Florence Pugh, and Margot Robbie in the Supporting Actress category. (Dern herself is nominated for her supporting role in Marriage Story.) Additionally, Johansson is nominated in the Leading Actress category with Saoirse Ronan, Charlize Theron, Renée Zellweger, and fellow first-time nominee Cynthia Erivo.

Johansson is one of an elite club now

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Being nominated multiple times in a single year isn’t uncommon. In 2019, Lady Gaga was up for Best Actress and Best Original Song for A Star Is Born. And many filmmakers, like this year’s nominee Quentin Tarantino, pull double duty and receive recognition for both their writing and directing.

However, it is rare to be nominated for two acting awards at one ceremony, as that would require you to have been in two nominated films in one year. With her nods, Johansson joins an elite group of just 12 actors to have accomplished this, including Julianne Moore, Jamie Foxx, and Cate Blanchett.

What are her chances of winning?

Scarlett Johansson at the premiere of 'Jojo Rabbit
Scarlett Johansson at the premiere of ‘Jojo Rabbit’ | Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic

If you’re wondering what Johansson’s chances are, let’s get the obvious out of the way: Technically, she has a higher likelihood of winning, given that she is competing in two categories. But let’s compare how her past fellow dual nominees fared before really determining her chances.

Of the eleven others, seven took home one acting award the night they were nominated for two. (None of them took home more than one.) Among those who didn’t is Emma Thompson, who was competing against Holly Hunter in both categories (the latter winning for Leading Actress). So it looks like Johansson’s chances are pretty good. We’ll have to wait until Oscars night to see how this all turns out.