Aloca Kicks Off 2012 Earnings Season with These Expectations

S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) component Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE:AA) will unveil its latest earnings on Monday, January 9, 2012. Alcoa is a global producer of aluminum. It is mainly engaged in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined. It is actively involved in a range of industries, including technology, mining, smelting, and recycling.

Alcoa, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for net income of 5 cents per share, a decline of 76.2% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 23 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It also has dropped from 8 cents during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting profit of 79 cents per share, a rise of 43.6% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company is looking to top analyst estimates this quarter after trailing for the two previous quarters. Last quarter, it missed estimates by reporting net income of 14 cents per share against an estimate of profit of 22 cents per share. The quarter before that, it missed expectations by 2 cents.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $5.79 billion in revenue this quarter, a rise of 2.5% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $24.7 billion for the year, a rise of 17.6% from last year’s revenue of $21.01 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts are bullish on Alcoa as eight analysts rate it as a buy, three rate it as a sell and six rate it as a hold.

A Look Back: In the third quarter, profit rose more than twofold to $172 million (15 cents a share) from $61 million (6 cents a share) the year earlier, but fell short analyst expectations. Revenue rose 21.4% to $6.42 billion from $5.29 billion.

Key Stats:

Revenue has risen the past four quarters. Revenue rose 27% in the second quarter from the year earlier, climbed 21.9% in the first quarter from the year-ago quarter and 4% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year.

Competitors to Watch: Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (NYSE:ACH),  Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ:KALU), Alumina Limited (NYSE:AWC), Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp. (NYSE:NOR), Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX), AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE:AKS), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:X), Arcelor Mittal (NYSE:MT) and POSCO (NYSE:PKX).

Stock Price Performance: During November 3, 2011 to January 3, 2012, the stock price had fallen $1.64 (-15.1%) from $10.87 to $9.23. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between June 24, 2011 and July 5, 2011 when shares rose for seven-straight days, rising 7.7% (+$1.16) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between September 15, 2011 and September 23, 2011 when shares fell for seven-straight days, falling 16% (-$1.91) over that span.

(Company fundamentals by Xignite Financials. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks)

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To contact the reporter on this story: Derek Hoffman at staff.writers@wallstcheatsheet.com

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Damien Hoffman at editors@wallstcheatsheet.com