An Important Look at Mosaic’s Earnings Trend

Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) reports earnings on January 4. In order to be properly prepared, you must be aware of Mosaic’s recent earnings trend.

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Here’s your Cheat Sheet to Mosaic’s annual and quarterly earnings trends:

Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue ($) in millions 9,813 10,300 6,759 9,938 11,110
Diluted EPS ($) 4.67 5.27 1.85 5.62 4.42

When looking at Mosaic’s earnings in the big picture, we see an up-down-up-down trend. During that time, the stock has been volatile yet remained fairly stable through 2012.

However, to prepare for Mosaic’s upcoming earnings release, our CHEAT SHEET investing framework asks us to drill down to the recent quarterly data…

Quarter Aug. 31, 2011 Nov. 30, 2011 Feb. 29, 2012 May. 31, 2012 Aug. 31, 2012
Revenue ($) in millions 3,083 3,014 2,190 2,820 2,505
Diluted EPS ($) 1.17 1.40 0.64 1.21 1.01

From this vantage point, Mosaic is erratic and higher risk. Earnings per share have been all over the place lately, and down quarter-over-quarter. We prefer to see earnings increasing quarter-over-quarter as a simple way to gauge whether costs and the business model are stable. In this case, Mosaic doesn’t pass our test at the moment. However, if Mosaic can increase earnings this quarter, we would gain confidence the stock is regaining composure for a reasonable rally (assuming Washington DC doesn’t screw up everything).

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