Analysis of May Durable Goods Orders

The June Advance Report on May Durable Goods was released this morning by the Census Bureau. Here is the summary on new orders:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $3.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $195.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 2.7 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent.

Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $2.7 billion or 5.8 percent to $49.6 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts which increased $2.7 billion.

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The first three charts illustrate headline durable goods since the early 1990s against the market, unemployment and GDP.

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This chart shows the percent change in orders with and without transportation (namely vehicle orders) since the turn of the century.

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The durable goods orders series is one of the more important indicators of the economy’s health. As this last chart shows, orders ex transportation have leveled out since the peak in December.

Doug Short is the author of dshort.com.