AvalonBay Communities Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) component AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE:AVB) will unveil its latest earnings on Monday, October 31, 2011. AvalonBay Communities develops, acquires, and operates multifamily communities in barrier-to-entry markets in the United States.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for net income of $1.18 per share, a rise of 20.4% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from $1.27. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It also has dropped from $1.19 during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting profit of $4.66 per share, a rise of 16.5% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: Last quarter, the company fell short of estimates by 3 cents, coming in at net income of 40 cents per share against a mean estimate of profit of $1.12. The company topped expectations in the first quarter.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $250.6 million in revenue this quarter, a rise of 11% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $985.5 million for the year, a rise of 11% from last year’s revenue of $888.2 million.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts are bullish on this stock with 10 analysts rating it as a buy, none rating it as a sell and nine rating it as a hold.

A Look Back: In the second quarter, profit fell 15.2% to $43.4 million (49 cents a share) from $51.1 million (61 cents a share) the year earlier, missing analyst expectations. Revenue rose 11% to $245.3 million from $220.9 million.

Key Stats:

Revenue has risen the past four quarters. Revenue rose 9.5% in the first quarter from the year earlier, climbed 18.7% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year from the year-ago quarter and 2.1% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

While the company has been profitable for the last eight quarters, income has fallen year over year by an average of 36.9% over the past four quarters. The quarter hit the hardest was the first quarter, that saw a 58.2% drop.

Competitors to Watch: UDR, Inc. (NYSE:UDR), Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR), Apartment Investment and Management Co. (NYSE:AIV), Essex Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE:MAA), Post Properties, Inc. (NYSE:PPS), Colonial Properties Trust (NYSE:CLP), BRE Properties, Inc. (NYSE:BRE), and Home Properties, Inc. (NYSE:HME).

Stock Price Performance: During September 27, 2011 to October 25, 2011, the stock price had risen $7.67 (6.4%) from $119.36 to $127.03. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between June 24, 2011 and July 7, 2011 when shares rose for nine-straight days, rising 8.6% (+$10.85) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 29, 2011 and August 8, 2011 when shares fell for seven-straight days, falling 13.3% (-$17.70) over that span. Shares are up $16.94 (+15.4%) year to date.

(Source: Xignite Financials)

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