Boeing (NYSE:BA) announced Thursday that they expect annual increases in passenger and cargo traffic to continue to exceed the global average for economic growth over the next 20 years, predicting that airlines would buy 33,500 new jets between now and 2030. Boeing estimates new orders will be worth $4 trillion.
According to Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing’s commercial airplanes division, “Not only is there a strong demand for air travel and new airplanes today, but the fundamental drivers of air travel — including economic growth, world trade and liberalization — all point to a healthy long-term demand.”
Boeing estimates that global GDP growth will average around 3.3% a year for the next 20 years, while growth in China and India will be closer to 7% annually. Boeing says global air traffic will continue to grow 4%, while Asia-Pacific markets will grow 7% a year, North American air travel will grow 2.3%, and Europe will grow 4%, with global passenger traffic tripling by 2030. Boeing has even higher hopes for growth in cargo traffic.
Currently single-aisle planes make up 70% of new aircraft sales, and that market is dominated by Boeing and Airbus, which both hold about 50%. However, they anticipate future competition from other manufacturers such as Bombardier (TSE:BBD.B) in Canada, Comac in China, and Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) in Brazil. Boeing expects single-aisle aircraft sales to reach $1.9 trillion over the next 20 years.
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