Can T-Mobile Stock Continue This Bullish Run?

With shares of T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) trading around $25, is TMUS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

T-Mobile offers mobile communications services under the T-Mobile brands in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Its service offerings include postpaid and prepaid wireless voice, messaging and data services, mobile broadband, and wholesale wireless services. The company has been increasing its user base at great rates, and a recent takeover rumor may be the fuel it needs for the stock to soar higher.

T-Mobile reported its second quarter earnings on Thursday morning. It led the industry during the recent quarter with 688,000 net new branded post-paid subscribers, quadrupling Wall Street’s expectations. T-Mobile added over 1 million total subscribers in the quarter as consumers flocked to it and its less restrictive smartphone contracts.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

T-Mobile stock has seen an explosive move higher in the last few months. The stock is now trading near all-time high prices and seems poised to continue higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, T-Mobile is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

TMUS

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of T-Mobile options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

T-Mobile Options

45.80%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

August Options

Flat

Average

September Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on T-Mobile’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for T-Mobile look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

N/A

-16.67%

-65.60%

173.70%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

7.90%

0.82%

3.73%

4.46%

Earnings Reaction

3.54%*

N/A

N/A

N/A

T-Mobile has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with T-Mobile’s recent earnings announcement.

* As of this writing

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has T-Mobile stock done relative to its peers, Verizon (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), Sprint (NYSE:S), and sector?

T-Mobile

Verizon

AT&T

Sprint

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

42.23%

-4.67%

-4.93%

24.77%

20.18%

T-Mobile has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

T-Mobile is attempting to revolutionize the communications industry by providing less-restricted products and services to consumers and companies. A recent earnings report has investors in the company upbeat. The stock has been surging higher and is now trading at all-time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenue figures have been rising which has resulted in pleased investors. Relative to its peers and sector, T-Mobile has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for T-Mobile to continue to OUTPERFORM.

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