Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Second Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) will unveil its latest earnings on Tuesday, July 19, 2011. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in 35 states throughout the United States, the District of Columbia and Ontario, Canada. Chipotle Hits $10 Billion Market Cap for First Time in Company History>>

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of $1.67 per share, a rise of 14.4% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from $1.71. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down and dropped from $1.68 during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net income of $6.82 per share, a rise of 20.9% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company has beaten estimates the last four quarters and is coming off a quarter where it topped forecasts by 3 cents, reporting profit of $1.46 per share against a mean estimate of net income of $1.43 per share.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $558.3 million in revenue this quarter, a rise of 19.6% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $2.2 billion for the year, a rise of 19.6% from last year’s revenue of $1.84 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Chipotle Mexican Grill with 12 of 22 analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

Key Stats:

The company has enjoyed double-digit year-over-year percentage revenue growth for the past four quarters. Over that span, the company has averaged growth of 23%, with the biggest boost coming in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year when revenue rose 24.5% from the year earlier quarter.

The company has now seen net income rise in three straight quarters. In the first quarter, net income rose 22.6% while it rose 47% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year and 39.9% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

Competitors to Watch: McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD), Good Times Restaurants Inc. (NASDAQ:GTIMD), Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TAST), Tim Hortons Inc. (NYSE:THI), Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM), Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK), Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ:PNRA), Nathan’s Famous, Inc. (NASDAQ:NATH), Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. (NYSE:WEN), Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX), Sonic Corporation (NASDAQ:SONC) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI).

Stock Price Performance: During May 16, 2011 to July 13, 2011, the stock price had risen $52.49 (19.2%) from $272.69 to $325.18. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between December 17, 2010, and December 28, 2010, when shares rose for seven-straight days, rising 8.2% (+$17.98) over that span. Shares have been on a negative streak of late, closing down every day between July 12, 2011 and July 13, 2011. Shares are up $112.52 (+52.9%) year to date.

(Source: Xignite Financials)

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