Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) will unveil its latest earnings on Thursday, October 20, 2011. Chipotle Mexican Grill develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in 35 states throughout the United States, the District of Columbia, and Ontario, Canada.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of $1.85 per share, a rise of 21.7% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from $1.88. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It has been unchanged at $1.85 during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net income of $6.80 per share, a rise of 20.6% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: Last quarter, the company missed estimates by 9 cents, coming in at profit of $1.59 per share versus a mean estimate of net income of $1.68 per share. In the first quarter, the company beat estimates by 3 cents.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $582.8 million in revenue this quarter, a rise of 22.2% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $2.25 billion for the year, a rise of 22.3% from last year’s revenue of $1.84 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Chipotle Mexican Grill with 13 of 22 analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

A Look Back: In the second quarter, profit rose 9% to $50.7 million ($1.59 a share) from $46.5 million ($1.46 a share) the year earlier, but fell short analyst expectations. Revenue rose 22.4% to $571.6 million from $466.8 million.

Key Stats:

The company has enjoyed double-digit year-over-year percentage revenue growth for the past four quarters. Over that span, the company has averaged growth of 23.6%, with the biggest boost coming in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year when revenue rose 24.5% from the year earlier quarter.

The company has seen net income rise in three straight quarters. Net income rose 22.6% in the first quarter and 47% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year.

Competitors to Watch: McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD), Good Times Restaurants Inc. (NASDAQ:GTIMD), Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TAST), Tim Hortons Inc. (NYSE:THI), Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM), Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK), Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ:PNRA), Nathan’s Famous, Inc. (NASDAQ:NATH), Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. (NYSE:WEN), Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX), Sonic Corporation (NASDAQ:SONC) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI).

Stock Price Performance: During August 18, 2011 to October 14, 2011, the stock price had risen $36.30 (12.8%) from $284.50 to $320.80. It saw one of its worst periods between December 17, 2010 and December 28, 2010 when shares fell for seven-straight days, falling 7.6% (-$17.98) over that span. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between March 22, 2011 and April 1, 2011 when shares rose for nine-straight days, rising 12.3% (+$30.11) over that span. Shares are up $108.14 (+50.9%) year to date.

(Source: Xignite Financials)

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