Cincinnati Financial Corp Third Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) component Cincinnati Financial Corp (NASDAQ:CINF) will unveil its latest earnings on Thursday, October 27, 2011. Cincinnati Financial markets property casualty insurance.

Cincinnati Financial Corp Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for net income of 13 cents per share, a decline of 61.8% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 39 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate was unchanged. It has since dropped over the last month. Analysts are projecting profit to rise by 79.2% versus last year to 35 cents.

Last quarter, the company came in at net loss of 57 cents per share against a mean estimate of a loss of 64 cents per share, beating estimates after missing them in the previous quarter. In the first quarter, it missed forecasts by 3 cents.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $931.2 million in revenue this quarter, a decline of 13% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $3.78 billion for the year, a rise of 0.3% from last year’s revenue of $3.77 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Cincinnati with five of six analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

A Look Back: In the second quarter, the company swung to a loss of $49 million (30 cents a share) from a profit of $27 million (17 cents) a year earlier, but beat analyst expectations. Revenue rose 11% to $975 million from $878 million.

Key Stats:

Cincinnati’s loss in the latest quarter followed profits in the previous three quarters. The company reported a profit of $62 million in the first quarter, a profit of $126 million in the fourth of the last fiscal year and a profit of $156 million in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

The company’s revenue has risen for two straight quarters. In the first quarter, the figure rose 4.7%.

Competitors to Watch: American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG), Selective Insurance Group (NASDAQ:SIGI), United Fire & Casualty (NASDAQ:UFCS), CNA Financial Corporation (NYSE:CNA), Harleysville Group Inc. (NASDAQ:HGIC), Markel Corporation (NYSE:MKL), W.R. Berkley Corporation (NYSE:WRB), The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRV), Old Republic Intl. Corp. (NYSE:ORI), and The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (NYSE:THG).

Stock Price Performance: During September 23, 2011 to October 21, 2011, the stock price had risen $3.11 (12.2%) from $25.45 to $28.56. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between September 9, 2011 and September 16, 2011 when shares rose for six-straight days, rising 3.5% (+94 cents) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 21, 2011 and August 2, 2011 when shares fell for nine-straight days, falling 7.1% (-$2) over that span. Shares are down $1.86 (-6.1%) year to date.

(Source: Xignite Financials)

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