Cummins Earnings Call Insights: Guidance Outlook and Medium-Duty Market Share

Cummins (NYSE:CMI) recently reported its first quarter earnings and discussed the following topics in its earnings conference call.

Guidance Outlook

David Leiker – Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc.: I just want to make sure one item first and then to follow-up on that. It sounds like this first quarter results were as you expected them to fall in the quarter. Is that accurate?

Tom Linebarger – Chairman and CEO: Yes.

David Leiker – Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc.: Then if we look through the balance of the year, it looks like most of your end market assumptions really don’t assume any sequential improvement in demand, year-over-year you have comps, but sequentially, it seems like you are expecting something pretty similar to what we saw here in the first quarter, maybe North America truck (better) just given where the build rates ended up there?

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Tom Linebarger – Chairman and CEO: I think if you look at the guidance we’ve given for the full year yield, David, we do expect sequential improvement in revenues beginning in the second quarter and we think that will help provide a platform for improved margin performance for the company throughout the remaining three quarters of the year. The first quarter as you mentioned was expected to be a low. As we went through the quarter, it was encouraging to see that their performance both at gross margin level and an EBIT margin level improved month-after-month. So we started off the quarter close to 10%, we finished off the quarter close to 13%, so that made me feel good, that we’ve got momentum. We are into the second quarter (indiscernible) guidance.

David Leiker – Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc.: Maybe it’s more accurate to think given the current level demand that you’re seeing here in April, that things generally are sequentially at the current pace. Is that fair?

Tom Linebarger – Chairman and CEO: That’s generally fair. The only thing, I guess, I would add is as I mentioned in my remarks, Power Gen was lower in margin than we expected, that was the one that (indiscernible) there were number of items that occurred in the first quarter we did not expect. But overall, revenue levels for them – even for them we thought were right. Second thing that happened as Pat was mentioning our January was weaker than we expected. We had a lot of bus orders and other pre-buy orders at the end of last year, I’ll let Rich give you more details on that. But it just slowed down our first quarter and is – I talked about in my remarks mining weakened even a little bit further, so things were weaker in January. But again, as Pat said we really start to strengthen through the quarter and began to look more like we expected in total for the quarter with the right trajectory. Now we are expecting sales to improve, Q2 through Q4 as we had planned and again, it’s not major market recoveries.

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David Leiker – Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc.: I guess what I was trying to get at.

Tom Linebarger – Chairman and CEO: It’s North America as we said people were basically producing below demand and now they’re going to step up and produce a robust demand. We have seasonality in Power Gen, so there is nothing dramatic. But the results across all those markets is the reasonably decent step up in sales as expected and without this kind of major adjustment in January that we had to fight through. So those things combined lead to better results. We also of course finished all of our restructuring actions, those are all through, we’re seeing benefits of those in our expense line. So we feel pretty good about the margins step-up we’ve laid out through the quarter.

David Leiker – Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc.: What I’m trying to get I guess, is that when you look at some of these end markets for other industrial companies there is expectations that the second half is significantly better than the first quarter. When you look at Eaton’s estimate for Q4 North America truck production at 78,000 you are not baking those types of assumptions into your numbers it sounds like?

Tom Linebarger – Chairman and CEO: I will let Rich – that’s a good question so let me have Rich comment on North American truck…

Rich Freeland – VP and President – Engine Business: Let me just add one more bit of color around the mid-range side. Where we got a little surprised quite frankly was in the mid-range side around bus, RV, fire truck. We saw OEs increase their orders in Q4 and basically bought most of their Q1 demand in Q4 and so we got a little positive surprise in Q4 on that and a bit of a negative surprise on Q1 on that and that was part of the – we’ve seen that come through and we have seen orders get back to kind of a normal rate kind of the end of March early April. On the heavy duty side, we have taken our overall forecast down from 240 to 233, so that does imply an increase sequentially through the year, if you do the math on that. I’ll give quarterly guidance we are seeing that increase in production rates have started here in Q2 where we forecasted to be to get to that 233 rate.

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Tom Linebarger – Chairman and CEO: There is no magic surprise in Q4 we are already seeing build rates come up now, I guess, is the main point there.

 

Medium-Duty Market Share

Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: I am wondering if you gentlemen can flush out couple of assumptions behind your guidance on the Navistar after treatment business specifically what kind of sales contribution are you assuming and what’s your heavy-duty truck market share assumption. And Tom, did I hear you right you are assuming 52% market share in medium duty where I think you were running a couple of points ahead of that in the first quarter. So, which margins flashing those points out a little bit?

Tom Linebarger – Chairman and CEO: Yeah. I think I’ll let Rich add, if he wants to. I think heavy-duty medium duty, we’re thinking in 40% heavy-duty, 52% in medium duty and both of those were a little ahead in the first quarter and basically our general view is those things fluctuate based on the market shares of the end used truck manufacturers and other variation. So, that’s why we do it. We look across the year and take an estimate based on those fluctuations. So, we don’t see major changes happening. It’s the same progressions we’ve seen across all the markets, but so far, we’ve seen good strength for people using our products, good feedback on our products. So, that all remains good. With regard for aftertreatment systems, as you know, we did get our system on the 13-liter engine Navistar approved by the EPA, that was a good news. We don’t give any specific forecast by customer on sales because obviously that’s confidential to them and those things vary quarter-to-quarter, but I would just say that we are pleased to see that. There was a lot of hard work by both companies to get them approved and those will start — sales will start, they’re starting now — Q2, we are going. So, we’re often running on those things, which is a good sign…

Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Mark, you laid out pretty significant components content increase coming up on Tier 4 Final in one of the appendix slides here – that your views in the past here. Can you just frame for us the Cummins opportunity on non-Cummins engines and just help us understand the pace of the transition that you expect in 2014 versus 2015?

Mark A. Smith – Executive Director, IR: Yeah. I think — so the comment on the pace, Jerry, we’ll talk about so much on the new wins at this point in time, but on the pace, you’ve got the between 175 horsepower and 750 horsepower engine size is going to Tier 4 Final next year. Then quite frankly the bigger dollar content per engine opportunity for components both are important, but also comes 2015-2016 on the high horsepower engines above the 750 horsepower, so those are going to come in two ways if you like.

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Tom Linebarger – Chairman and CEO: Then we’ve also got Jerry remember, as I mentioned in my remarks Euro 6 starting in 2014. So while we can’t comment on individual wins until the customer does because they still reserve the right to talk about their products. What I would say is that we feel very good about our position with regard to Euro 6 and Tier 4 Final both for our own products, but also for winning business with our components company on other people’s engines. At Bauma for example in Munich, Rich and I were both there and if you looked around the construction business there. There were Cummins engines in just about every booth except one or two obvious ones. We were all over the show and the reason is because we have a very good Tier 4 Final solution and people see us as an opportunity to grow business both in their home market, but also – as they spread their business internationally. So I think our off-highway engine business, everything we said about people wanting to partner with us to be able to get the technology and to grow globally was showing up there in that show.

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