Does Netflix Have a Bright Future?

With shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) trading around $327, is NFLX an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Netflix is an Internet subscription service that streams television shows and movies. The company’s subscribers can watch unlimited television shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their televisions, computers, and mobile devices. In the United States, subscribers can also receive DVDs delivered to their homes. Netflix has revolutionized the television and movie industry with its services.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Netflix stock has been exploding higher in the last couple of years. The stock is currently moving higher and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Netflix is trading slightly below its rising key averages, which signals neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

NFLX

Source: Thinkorswim

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Netflix options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Netflix Options

68.12%

70%

68%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

May Options

Steep

Average

June Options

Steep

Average

As of Monday, there is average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Netflix’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Netflix look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q4

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

491.17%

300%

345.45%

162.5%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

24.31%

22.2%

20.23%

17.72%

Earnings Reaction

16.47%

-9.14%

-4.46%

24.28%

Netflix has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Netflix’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Netflix stock done relative to its peers – Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), and Outerwall (NASDAQ:OUTR) — and sector?

Netflix

Amazon

Comcast

Outerwall

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-10.5%

-21.5%

-6.38%

-1.96%

-9.08%

Netflix has been an average performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Netflix is a streaming service that provides video entertainment to consumers in the United States. The company will report first-quarter results after market close on April 21 and host a live video discussion at 2 p.m. Pacific Time. The stock has been exploding higher and looks set to continue. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been rising, which has left investors pleased. Relative to its peers and sector, Netflix has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Netflix to OUTPERFORM.

Using a solid investing framework such as this can help improve your stock-picking skills. Don’t waste another minute — click here and get our CHEAT SHEET stock picks now.

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