Does the Smith & Wesson Whisper Number Show Investor Confidence?

Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:SWHC) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, March 4. The whisper number is $0.31, two cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate. Smith & Wesson has a 71 percent positive surprise history, having topped the whisper in 5 of the 7 earnings reports for which we have data.

Earnings history:

– Beat whisper: 5 qtrs
– Met whisper: 0 qtrs
– Missed whisper: 2 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe.

SWHC314A

The strongest price movement of +2.3 percent comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -10.2 percent within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. While the strongest price moves are as expected, the overall average price move is ‘negative’ (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.

The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction.

SWHC314B

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in two of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 1.4 percent loss in five trading days. Last quarter, the company reported earnings seven cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 17.1 percent gain in thirty trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average) a ‘negative’ price reactor when the company reports earnings.

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John Scherr is the founder and President of WhisperNumber.com, an independent financial research firm focused on earnings expectations. He is a regular contributor to CNBC and Fox Business Network, and has been featured in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, and MarketWatch. He is considered a leading expert on ‘whisper numbers’ and post earnings price movement analysis. WhisperNumber.com provides specific earnings trade alerts to take advantage of earnings report price movement with their Whisper Reactors subscription service.

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