Why is Goldman Sachs More Confident About the Recovery?

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Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), along with many banks (NYSE:XLF) on Wall Street, have turned incredibly bullish on the prospects for the U.S. economy.

Just last week the bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, spelled out why he think the U.S. is going to boom in 2011. Now we have the charts to back up his opinions.

Goldman’s bullishness center’s on their belief that the jobless recovery actually isn’t that much of a threat, that manufacturing continues to grow, the consumer is about to spring back to life, and the Fed will do everything it can to make sure things run smoothly.

Not a bad combination to back up their S&P target of 1500 for 2011.

Personal consumption expenditures are predicted to rise 3.5% in 2011. They make up around 70% of the U.S. economy.

Personal consumption expenditures are predicted to rise 3.5% in 2011. They make up around 70% of the U.S. economy.

Image: Goldman Sachs

The personal savings rate is not stable at 6%.

The personal savings rate is not stable at 6%.

Image: Goldman Sachs

The trend for jobless claims is down, so that’s a positive sign about the employment situation.

The trend for jobless claims is down, so that's a positive sign about the employment situation.

Image: Goldman Sachs

While the employment situation isn’t improving fast, it is improving.

While the employment situation isn't improving fast, it is improving.

Image: Goldman Sachs

U.S. manufacturing has been expanding for 17 months in a row.

U.S. manufacturing has been expanding for 17 months in a row.

Image: Goldman Sachs

Bank loan growth has now turned positive, indicating consumers are interesting in taking on debt again.

Bank loan growth has now turned positive, indicating consumers are interesting in taking on debt again.

Image: Goldman Sachs

Part of the reason confidence in the recovery is weak is because this recovery has been jobless. But that’s not abnormal, as the 1991 and 2001 recoveries were similar.

Part of the reason confidence in the recovery is weak is because this recovery has been jobless. But that's not abnormal, as the 1991 and 2001 recoveries were similar.

Image: Goldman Sachs

This data leaves Goldman thinking much more positively about the 2011 GDP outlook, than many of their competitors, with annual growth of 3.4%.

This data leaves Goldman thinking much more positively about the 2011 GDP outlook, than many of their competitors, with annual growth of 3.4%.

Image: Goldman Sachs

Even their 2012 projection is bullish, with growth approaching 4%.

Even their 2012 projection is bullish, with growth approaching 4%.

Image: Goldman Sachs

The quarterly breakdown: Q2 2011 through Q1 2012 looks particularly strong, with growth of 4.0%.

The quarterly breakdown: Q2 2011 through Q1 2012 looks particularly strong, with growth of 4.0%.

Image: Goldman Sachs

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