Guess? First Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

Guess?, Inc. (NYSE:GES) will unveil its latest earnings on Tuesday, May 22, 2012. Guess designs, markets, distribute and licenses a leading lifestyle collection of contemporary apparel and accessories for men, women and children.

Guess?, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average analyst estimate is for profit of 27 cents per share, a decline of 50.9% from the company’s actual earnings for the year-ago quarter. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 51 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It has been unchanged at 27 cents during the last month. Analysts are projecting profit to rise by 16.6% compared to last year’s $2.62.

Past Earnings Performance: The company met estimates last quarter after beating the forecasts in the prior two. In the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, the company reported net income of $1.05 per share versus a mean estimate of profit of $1.05 per share. In the third quarter of the last fiscal year, the company beat estimates by 2 cents.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $571.5 million in revenue this quarter, a decline of 3.5% from the year-ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $2.75 billion for the year, a rise of 2.2% from last year’s revenue of $2.69 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Guess with five of nine analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

A Look Back: In the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, profit fell 7.2% to $95.9 million ($1.04 a share) from $103.3 million ($1.11 a share) the year earlier, meeting analyst expectations. Revenue rose 2.5% to $775.8 million from $756.9 million.

Key Stats:

On the top line, the company is looking to build on four-straight revenue increases heading into this earnings announcement. Revenue rose 9.8% in the first quarter of the last fiscal year, 17.3% in the second quarter of the last fiscal year and 4.7% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year before increasing again in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year of the last fiscal year.

Heading into this earnings announcement, net income has dropped 8.9% on average for the last four quarters.

Stock Price Performance: Between February 21, 2012 and May 16, 2012, the stock price fell $8.50 (-24.8%), from $34.23 to $25.73. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between December 14, 2011 and December 27, 2011, when shares rose for nine straight days, increasing 10.9% (+$3) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 22, 2011 and August 2, 2011 when shares fell for eight straight days, dropping 12.7% (-$5.17) over that span.

(Company fundamentals by Xignite Financials. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks)

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