Guess? Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

Guess?, Inc. (NYSE:GES) will unveil its latest earnings on Wednesday, November 23, 2011. Guess designs, markets, distribute and licenses a leading lifestyle collection of contemporary apparel and accessories for men, women and children.

Guess?, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of 74 cents per share, a decline of 1.3% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 86 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It has been unchanged at 74 cents during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net income of $3.32 per share, a rise of 6.8% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company has beaten estimates the last four quarters and is coming off a quarter where it topped forecasts by 3 cents, reporting profit of 84 cents per share against a mean estimate of net income of 81 cents per share.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $655.2 million in revenue this quarter, a rise of 6.7% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $2.74 billion for the year, a rise of 10% from last year’s revenue of $2.49 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts are bullish on Guess as five analysts rate it as a buy, one rates it as a sell and five rate it as a hold.

A Look Back: In the second quarter, profit fell 9.1% to $60.7 million (65 cents a share) from $66.8 million (72 cents a share) the year earlier, but exceeded analyst expectations. Revenue rose 17.3% to $677.2 million from $577.1 million.

Key Stats:

Revenue has risen the past four quarters. Revenue rose 9.8% in the first quarter from the year earlier, climbed 17.9% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year from the year-ago quarter and 17.4% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

The company has seen net income fall in each of the last two quarters. Net income dropped 15.2% in the first quarter.

Competitors to Watch: Liz Claiborne, Inc. (NYSE:LIZ), The Wet Seal, Inc. (NASDAQ:WTSLA), Express, Inc. (NYSE:EXPR), Destination Maternity Corp. (NASDAQ:DEST), The Cato Corporation (NYSE:CATO), bebe stores, inc. (NASDAQ:BEBE), Cache, Inc. (NASDAQ:CACH), Carter’s, Inc. (NYSE:CRI), The Talbots, Inc. (NYSE:TLB), and Ascena Retail Group Inc (NASDAQ:ASNA).

Stock Price Performance: During August 24, 2011 to November 17, 2011, the stock price had fallen $5.14 (-15.5%) from $33.09 to $27.95. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between April 18, 2011 and April 29, 2011 when shares rose for nine-straight days, rising 12.6% (+$4.75) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 22, 2011 and August 2, 2011 when shares fell for eight-straight days, falling 12.7% (-$5.24) over that span. Shares are down $18.62 (-40%) year to date.

(Company fundamentals by Xignite Financials. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks)

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