Harley-Davidson Inc. Fourth Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) component Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) will unveil its latest earnings on Tuesday, January 24, 2012. Harley-Davidson manufactures heavyweight motorcycles as well as motorcycle parts and accessories. .

Harley-Davidson, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet.

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of 22 cents per share, a swing from net loss of 18 cents in the year earlier quarter. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 25 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It also has dropped from 24 cents during the last month. Analysts are projecting profit to rise by 110.8% versus last year to $2.34.

Past Earnings Performance: The company is looking to top estimates for the third straight quarter. Last quarter, it reported net income of 78 cents per share against a mean estimate of profit of 74 cents, and the quarter before, the company exceeded forecasts by 11 cents with net income of 81 cents versus a mean estimate of profit of 70 cents.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $1.01 billion in revenue this quarter, a rise of 10.1% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $4.64 billion for the year, a rise of 11% from last year’s revenue of $4.18 billion.

Analyst Ratings: 10 out of 15 analysts surveyed (66.7%) have a buy rating on Harley-Davidson.. This is below the mean analyst rating of nine competitors, which average 82.4% buy ratings.

A Look Back: In the third quarter, profit rose more than twofold to $183.6 million (78 cents a share) from $88.8 million (38 cents a share) the year earlier, exceeding analyst expectations. Revenue rose 10.9% to $1.4 billion from $1.26 billion.

Key Stats:

Revenue has gone up for three straight quarters. It rose 15% in the second quarter from the year earlier and 1.5% in the first quarter.

Competitors to Watch: Polaris Industries (NYSE:PII), Brunswick (NYSE:BC), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford (NYSE:F), Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC).

Stock Price Performance: During October 20, 2011 to January 18, 2012, the stock price had risen $6.75 (19.2%) from $35.14 to $41.89. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between June 24, 2011 and July 5, 2011 when shares rose for seven-straight days, rising 12.6% (+$4.75) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 22, 2011 and August 2, 2011 when shares fell for eight-straight days, falling 9.1% (-$4.15) over that span.

(Company fundamentals by Xignite Financials. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks)

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