One of our missions at Wall St. Cheat Sheet is to “Provide investing and trading education from successful pros who practice what they preach.” Top 30 Trader Under 30 Adam Guren at First New York Securities is arguably the Lebron James of professional proprietary trading. I did a Market Wizards style interview with Adam back in May, so I wanted to do a brief follow up to see what he’s thinking as we head into September …
Damien Hoffman: Adam, now that emerging markets and BRIC markets have made a nice run in a short period of time, what strategy are you currently employing?
Adam Guren: This is no secret to everyone at this point, but I think that these markets are overdone. I have sold September calls against my long BRIC positions and probably looking to get short at these levels for a correction. The market has come too far too fast and I don’t think we will have a V-shaped recovery. Its as if the markets experienced a serious car crash and are now just getting up and walking away like nothing happened. Logically, this doesn’t make sense and we need to go through some kind of recovery phase at this point. I don’t think we’ll correct down to our March lows, but a healthy 10-15% correction is well overdue.
Damien: Can you discuss whether there are any seasonal factors which will affect your strategy as summer ends and we usher in the typically bearish fall months?
Adam Guren: You basically touched on it in your question. Historically, September has been one of the markets worst months of the year and I do not think this September will be any different. At these inflated levels, we are setting up for a rocky fall. That said, I believe that there will be some decent opportunities to get long some ETFs that might ‘overcorrect.’ Again, the BRIC countries are still a good place to be for a long term outlook.
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