How Will Oshkosh Do Without Carl Icahn?

Shares of Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK) were off about 4.5 percent in early afternoon trading on Tuesday after Carl Icahn pulled his bid to buy the company. Icahn, a billionaire investor with a penchant for buying stakes in distressed companies and shaking them up, was tendered only about 22 percent of the company’s shares. Without 25 percent of shares tendered, Icahn did not see the level of support he wanted among shareholders for his buyout offer.

Why Was Icahn Interested in Oshkosh?

Icahn’s buyout offer valued the truck maker at around $3 billion, about 14 percent higher than its $2.62 billion market capitalization on December 4. Icahn believes that Oshkosh needs a management shake up and a new strategy, and likely thought he could profit as a stakeholder in a growing company.

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The company’s current leadership clearly disagreed.

CHEAT SHEET Analysis: Oshkosh is Doing Just Fine Without Icahn

Icahn’s offer of $32.50 per share was less than a dollar above the stock’s 52-week high of $31.65, which it hit late in November. While the stock’s movement toward that price level was no doubt fueled by Icahn’s offer, the company’s stock has climbed over 34 percent this year to date, and over 43 percent year over year…

One of the core components of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework¬†evaluates a stock’s price performance relative to its moving averages. As of December 3, Oshkosh’s stock price was 0.19 percent above its simple moving average, or SMA, 1.44 percent above its 50-day SMA, and 21.57 percent above its 200-day SMA.

For comparison, Terex Corp. (NYSE:TEX), one of Oshkosh’s major competitors, is trading 12.99 percent above its 200-day SMA. Shares of Terex Corp. are up over 65 percent this year to date and over 41 percent year over year.

As a benchmark, the S&P 500 is up 10.37 percent this year to date, and 12.12 percent year over year.

On the plus side, Oshkosh is clearly outperforming another major competitor, Navistar International Corporation (NYSE:NAV), which has seen its stock come down over 46 percent this year to date and over 48 percent year over year.

The Investors Have Spoken

While Oshkosh’s stock performance is in some ways lagging that of a major competitor, the company is still clearly producing strong returns for its shareholders. Those with a stake in the company probably think that Oshkosh’s stock will break the $32.50 price offered by Icahn on its own accord in the near future. Many investors familiar with Icahn’s tactics and history of success and failures could also be resistant to the idea of an Icahn takeover regardless of price offered.

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