Jive Gets Mixed Reviews from Analysts

Jive Software (JIVE) saw its stock drop over 4 percent to $14.54 on Monday. This came from the company’s December IPO underwriters giving it mixed reviews: three thumbs up and three indifferent reviews.

Thumbs Up

According to Barron’s, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup (NYSE:C),and BMO Capital (NYSE:BMO) gave the software maker a thumbs up while Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), UBS Securities (NYSE:UBS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) were less enthusiastic with their hold ratings.

Giving an “Overweight” rating and a $20 price target, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Holt wrote that Jive is “at the cross section of several of the most attractive secular drivers in technology” according to Barron’s. He sees the company having 40 percent or better revenue growth and lots of leverage with an upside to its current earnings projections. Holt added that Jive’s “social computing” software is “highly strategic.”

Holt also looked at other software and services vendors, including Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), which are trying to create market share while Jive is already there with its 17 million paying users. He thinks the company is “the enterprise leader” and writes,

Jive provides users with tangible results: increased productivity, fewer emails (27%), lower customer service costs (28% fewer calls on average) and many other benefits (Exhibit 27). The platform also learns – directing users to the most relevant content and people, and increasing its value over time. This positions Jive to capture spend in areas like email and collaboration, while defining a new market. IDC estimates the TAM at $26B, growing at an 8% CAGR to 2015.

Holt projects 2012 annual revenues of $106 million with a $0.57 per share net loss.

Neutral Thumb 

A less enthusiastic underwriter was …

Goldman Sachs’s Heather Bellini who gave the stock a “Netural” rating with a $16 price target.

Bellini wrote in a report that Jive will be a “key enabler in changing how companies interact and collaborate with their customers, employees and partners both internally and externally.”

She added the stock is “fairly valued” at seven times her 2012 billings estimate, higher than the “software as a service” (NASDAQ:SAAS) six-time average, reported Barron’s.

Bellini estimates came in lower than Holt’s with a 2012 revenues at $105.7 million and a $0.20 per share net loss.