Here’s an update on Treasury yields in advance of the first business day after the People’s Bank of China (NYSE:FXI) boosted its key one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points on Christmas day.
The behavior of Treasuries is an area of special interest in light of the Fed’s QE2 strategy. The first chart shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The source for the yields is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates from the US Department of the Treasury and the New York Fed’s website for the FFR.
The yield spread has been widening over the past couple of months. However, the pattern of rising yields at the short end runs counter to the expectations of a Federal Reserve that has set the Target Rate to 0.00 – 0.25. The next chart shows the 2- and 10-year yields with the 2-10 spread highlighted in the background.
The final chart is an overlay of the CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note (TNX) and the S&P 500.
Doug Short Ph.d is the author of dshort.com.
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