Macro Mashup: Do These Reports Signal a Strengthening Recovery?

The American economy finally got some good news today, as strong macroeconomic reports from multiple sectors indicate that business may finally be picking up on the home front. First in this morning was ISM’s Chicago PMI Report, which showed substantially stronger numbers for manufacturing in June than expected, coming in at 61.1 v. 53.3 projected. Barrons says this is particularly significant, as “Chicago PMI has a reputation of being a precursor the National Association for Purchasing Management’s read on factory activity, which is to be released Friday morning.” Notable stats from the report included a production index score of 66.9, up from 56 in May, new orders index up to 61.2 from 53.5 in May, backlogs down 2.5 points to 49.2, and inventories way down to 46.9 from over 61 last month. Prices paid also dropped of significantly in the month, an encouraging lead for production strength.

Next in this morning was another upbeat outlook from Kansas City, in the KC Fed’s Manufacturing Report. The report, titled, “Manufacturing Sector Shows Rebound After Last Month Slowdown” boasted a month over month Composite index up to 14 vs. 1 in May, a rising production index 2 v. last month’s -22, and a higher employment index 17 vs. 9 from May. KC Fed’s Wilkerson commented, “Factories in the region basically resumed their solid pace of growth from earlier in the year, following some disruptions in May. Also, hiring plans remain fairly solid for the second half of the year.”

But the good news for business was not just coming from the Midwest today, as this morning PayNet’s Business Loans volume index also showed that small business are taking out the highest number of loans since 2008, up 26% YoY in May. Also chiming in on the macro front around lunchtime today was CoreLogic on home prices, which showed a bump in May for the second straight month. All around not too shabby for a Thursday in June.

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