Juniper Research forecasts mobile payment (for digital and physical goods, money transfers and NFC) sales over the next three years will reach $670 billion in total transactions by 2015. This year, mobile pay commerce totaled $240 billion, so growth is expected to triple over that time frame.
NFC mobile payment — which is expected to proliferate through the coming launch of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Wallet — exchanges are projected to total $50 billion worldwide by 2014, with 2011-12 expected to be “banner years” for NFC as Google, its signed-on retailers, and a number of other companies such as Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) venture into the world of mobile-pay. According to the report, “Some 20 countries are expected to launch NFC services in the next 18 months, resulting in transactions approaching $50 billion worldwide by 2014. Meanwhile the need for financial access in developing countries is such that active mobile money users will double by 2013 and drive transaction values accordingly.”
The top three regions for mobile payment growth are expected to be North America, China (NYSE:FXI)/East Asia, and Western Europe (accounting for 75% of mobile pay transactions by 2015). Digital goods payments are expected to grow to include 40% of all mobile pay exchanges by that year.