See Why Lagging Unemployment is the Biggest Threat to the Economy
According to a new forecasting survey by Wall Street Journal economists, expected job creation for 2011 has been revised downward to 2.2 million new jobs from earlier estimates of 2.5 million. With unemployment currently at 9.1%, many experts believe the larger economy may continue to sputter until job growth churns at a steadier pace.
From WSJ, “In the latest survey, the economists lowered their forecasts for second-quarter growth in gross domestic product to 2.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate—down from last month’s forecast of 3.2%. However, they see growth perking up to 3.3% in the second half of 2011.” Of the 49 economists who weighed their opinions in the survey, almost half (21) listed job growth as the most important factor in creating sustainable expansion for the economy. 19 others listed oil prices as the stagnating recovery’s most pressing concern.
Current economist projections hold that the job market will recover slowly, with hopeful projections targeting unemployment numbers of 8.2% by summer 2012 and under 8% by the holiday season next year. However, these projections are highly dependent on the efficacy of current fiscal and monetary policy. According to the poll, experts believe that we are still looking at a 20% chance of a double dip recession in the near future, a worst-case scenario for the labor market.
Learn More with Econ 101: Your Ultimate Cheat Sheet to Unemployment Numbers.