Tech Earnings Spotlight: NVIDIA Consensus EPS and Revenue Estimate

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is expected to report Q4 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, February 15, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. The consensus estimate is 19c for EPS and $950.51M for revenue, according to First Call.

Last month, Nvidia warned it expects revenue for Q4 of FY12 to be lower than the previous outlook. Revenue is now expected to be $950M, plus or minus 1%. The Q4 gross margin is forecast to be flat to up 0.5% on GAAP/non-GAAP basis vs. a Q3 adjusted GM of 52.5%. The company guided to a Q4 capex budget of $30M-$40M. Nvidia blamed the shortfall on a bigger impact from the flooding in Thailand on the mainstream GPU segment; higher prices of disk-drives constrained some PC OEMs’ ability to include a GPU in their systems; and the Tegra 2 mobile business falling more rapidly than expected, due to the introduction of the Tegra 3. The whisper number for Q4 is 19c, in-line with analyst estimates.

Several other companies with high exposure to the Thailand catastrophe, including Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) and Western Digital (NYSE:WDC), managed to produce blowout numbers for the recent period, implying the impact of the disaster may be waning. Citigroup expects Nvidia’s tone regarding GPU’s to be particularly positive given their forthcoming opportunity to regain share in Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) desktop products. Citigroup estimates approximately 5% PC unit growth in 2012. Given that NVIDIA already communicated its expectations to the Street in late January, much of the attention will center on revenue guidance for 1Q13.

The current 1Q13 estimate is 18c on $944.85M in revenue. If the high end of the revenue guidance for 1Q13 period falls shy of consensus, Nvidia faces potential downside. Management guidance for FY12 is for non-GAAP revenue of $4.7B-$5.0B vs. consensus $4.31B. The company sees FY13 gross margin 51%-53%.

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To contact the reporter on this story: Derek Hoffman at staff.writers@wallstcheatsheet.com

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Damien Hoffman at editors@wallstcheatsheet.com