The Allstate Corp Third Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) component The Allstate Corp (NYSE:ALL) will unveil its latest earnings on Monday, October 31, 2011. Allstate provides insurance on personal property as well as offering casualty insurance, life insurance, retirement, and investment products.

The Allstate Corp Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of 15 cents per share, a decline of 81.9% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 75 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It also has dropped from 28 cents during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net income of 82 cents per share, a decline of 71.1% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company has beaten estimates the last two quarters and is coming off a quarter where it topped the forecasts by 30 cents, reporting net loss of $1.23 per share against a mean estimate of a loss of $1.53. In the first quarter, the company exceeded forecasts by 25 cents with profit of 93 cents versus a mean estimate of net income of 68 cents.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $6.74 billion in revenue this quarter, a decline of 0.4% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $25.89 billion for the year, a decline of 0.1% from last year’s revenue of $25.91 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Allstate with 12 of 21 analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

A Look Back: In the second quarter, the company swung to a loss of $620 million ($1.19 a share) from a profit of $145 million (27 cents) a year earlier, but beat analyst expectations. Revenue rose 5.6% to $8.08 billion from $7.66 billion.

Key Stats:

Revenue has risen the past four quarters. Revenue rose 4.5% in the first quarter from the year earlier, climbed 0.4% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year from the year-ago quarter and 4.3% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

Allstate’s loss in the latest quarter followed profits in the previous three quarters. The company reported a profit of $519 million in the first quarter, a profit of $296 million in the fourth of the last fiscal year and a profit of $367 million in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

Competitors to Watch: Horace Mann Educators Corp. (NYSE:HMN), The Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR), Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAFT), 21st Century Holding Co. (NASDAQ:TCHC), The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRV), Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HTH), Hallmark Financial Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:HALL), Tower Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TWGP), Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ:ERIE), and Gainsco, Inc. (AMEX:GAN).

Stock Price Performance: During September 27, 2011 to October 25, 2011, the stock price had risen $2.70 (11.3%) from $23.80 to $26.50. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between October 17, 2011 and October 24, 2011 when shares rose for six-straight days, rising 12.1% (+$2.92) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 7, 2011 and July 18, 2011 when shares fell for eight-straight days, falling 9.4% (-$2.88) over that span. Shares are down $4.69 (-15%) year to date.

(Source: Xignite Financials)

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