Considering the U.S. Equity Market has recovered roughly half of the losses from the crash, now is the perfect time to gauge sentiment for the year. Let’s see what some persuasive people are saying about 2010 …
David Rosenberg — Rosenberg questions whether we are even recovering: “Keep in mind that 25% of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are ‘upside down’ right now (15 million households with negative equity) which portends more foreclosures coming down the pike and more inventory in the pipeline. This in turn poses a cloud over the home price outlook in 2010 even with the Obama team’s stepped-up loan modification process, which thus far has been a failure.”
“We have characterized the rally in the economy and global equity markets appropriately as a bear market rally from the March lows, influenced by the heavy hand of government intervention and stimulus. But in classic Bob Farrell form, 2010 may well be seen as the year in which we witness the inevitable drawn out decline that is typical of secular bear markets.”
Robert Prechter (The Elliott Wave maestro) — “I think it’s a great time for people who turn bullish in the first quarter to get out of the stock market … we’re now in territory where you need to think about lightening up on stocks, even getting short. I think 2010 is going to be a big down year very much like 2008.”
Meredith Whitney — Kicks of the year slashing earnings estimates for financial titans Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS).
Jeff Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James — Given the comparable rally to 1933, “prudence suggests some caution is again warranted.”
Doug Kass — Gold sells off into the 2nd quarter of 2010.
Ben Bernanke — Doesn’t see a reason to raise rates yet.
Wells Fargo Advisory Fleet Client Report — Year-end S&P 500 1175-1200, or 6-8% upside from current market levels.
Keep an eye out for the January edition of Wall St. Cheat Sheet Premium publishing this Friday.
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