The Progressive Corp Second Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) component The Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) will unveil its latest earnings on Thursday, August 11, 2011. Progressive Corp. is an insurance holding company that provides personal and commercial automobile insurance and other property-casualty insurance throughout the U.S.

The Progressive Corp Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for net income of 35 cents per share, a decline of 12.5% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 36 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate was unchanged, but has since dropped during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting profit of $1.56 per share, a decline of 3.1% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company missed estimates last quarter after beating forecasts in the prior two. In the first quarter, the company reported net income of 38 cents per share versus a mean estimate of profit of 39 cents per share. In fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, the company beat estimates by 2 cents.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $3.86 billion in revenue this quarter, a rise of 3.8% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $15.02 billion for the year, a rise of 3.7% from last year’s revenue of $14.48 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Progressive with 11 of 20 analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

Key Stats:

The increase in profit in the first quarter breaks a streak of three consecutive quarters of year-over-year profit decreases. In the first quarter, net income rose 22.8% from the year earlier, while the figure dropped 1.9% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, 3.1% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year and 15.3% in the second quarter of the last fiscal year.

Over the last four quarters, revenue has increased 2.9% on average year over year. The biggest increase came in the most recent quarter, when revenue rose 6.2% from the year earlier quarter.

Competitors to Watch: Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAFT), The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL), First Acceptance Corp. (NYSE:FAC), 21st Century Holding Co. (NASDAQ:TCHC), Tower Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TWGP), Mercury General Corp. (NYSE:MCY), White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (NYSE:WTM), Horace Mann Educators Corp. (NYSE:HMN), Infinity Property and Casualty Corp. (NASDAQ:IPCC), and Gainsco, Inc. (AMEX:GAN).

Stock Price Performance: During July 8, 2011 to August 5, 2011, the stock price had dropped $2.96 (-13.8%) from $21.44 to $18.48. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between June 23, 2011 and July 1, 2011 when shares rose for seven-straight days, rising 4.8% (+99 cents) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 7, 2011 and July 18, 2011 when shares fell for eight-straight days, falling 7.7% (-$1.67) over that span. Shares are down 99 cents (-5.1%) year to date.

(Source: Xignite Financials)

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