Toll Brothers Inc. Fourth Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) will unveil its latest earnings on Tuesday, December 6, 2011. Toll Brothers designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities.

Toll Brothers, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for net income of 5 cents per share, a swing from a loss of 6 cents in the year earlier quarter. The average estimate is the same as three months ago. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate was unchanged. It also has not changed during the last month. Analysts are projecting profit of 20 cents per share versus net loss of 71 cents last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company showed net income of 2 cents per share versus a mean estimate of profit of last quarter. This marks the fourth month of falling short of estimates.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $424 million in revenue this quarter, a rise of 5.3% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $1.47 billion for the year, a decline of 1.3% from last year’s revenue of $1.49 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Toll Brothers with nine of 15 analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

A Look Back: In the third quarter, profit rose 54.2% to $42.1 million (25 cents a share) from $27.3 million (16 cents a share) the year earlier, but fell short analyst expectations. Revenue fell 13.2% to $394.3 million from $454.2 million.

Key Stats:

A year-over-year revenue decrease in the third quarter snapped a streak of two consecutive quarters of revenue increases. Revenue rose 2.7% in the second quarter and 2.3% in the first quarter.

Competitors to Watch: PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM), M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC), D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI), KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN), Comstock Homebuilding Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHCI), Orleans Homebuilders (OHBIQ), Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH), The Ryland Group, Inc. (NYSE:RYL), and Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE:SPF).

Stock Price Performance: During October 4, 2011 to November 30, 2011, the stock price had risen $6.31 (45.1%) from $14 to $20.31. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between August 23, 2011 and August 31, 2011 when shares rose for seven-straight days, rising 16.6% (+$2.45) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 19, 2011 and July 27, 2011 when shares fell for seven-straight days, falling 6% (-$1.27) over that span. Shares are up $1.31 (+6.9%) year to date.

(Company fundamentals by Xignite Financials. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks)

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