Top Countries Set to Lead Global Trade 40 Years from Now

Despite a 20% decline during the financial crisis, world trade is set to grow at an average rate of 6.1% every year between 2010 and 2030, and 4.4% between 2030 and 2050.

In real terms world trade (i.e. the sum of imports and exports) is set to jump from $37 trillion in 2010 to $287 trillion in 2050, according to a new Citigroup report titled Trade Transformed: The Emerging New Corridors of Trade Power.

Specifically, trade is set to transform with most growth coming from emerging markets. China is projected to overtake the U.S. as the world’s leader in trade as early as 2015.

Obama Signs Free Trade Agreements with These 3 Countries>>

Developing Asia is expected to become the world’s largest regional trade corridor in the same period. Moreover, intra-EM trade is expected to account for 38% of world trade in 2050. These projections are however contingent on GDP growth, improved productivity, rising incomes and the fewer protectionist measures.

#10 UK

#10 UK

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Trade in 2050: $6.02 trillion Percent of world trade: 2.1%

UK’s trade is set to rise from $1.77 trillion in 2015, to $3.2 trillion in 2030 and account fo 2.6% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

#9 Singapore

#9 Singapore

Image: AP

Trade in 2050: $6.8 trillion Percent of world trade: 2.4%

Singapore will account for 2.7% of world trade in 2030 and its trade will total $3.2 trillion in 2030

Source: Citigroup

#8 Japan

#8 Japan

Trade in 2050: $7.6 trillion Percent of world trade: 2.7%

Japan which at $1.78 trillion accounted for 4.8% of world trade in 2010, is expected to slip in the rankings.  By 2030, it will account for only 3.5% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

#7 Hong Kong

#7 Hong Kong

Trade in 2050: $8.5 trillion Percent of world trade: 2.3%

Hong Kong, which didn’t make the top 10 list in 2010, is expected to jump to the seventh spot in 2030 with $3.8 trillion in trade.

Source: Citigroup

#6 Indonesia

#6 Indonesia

Image: Luke Duggleby

Trade in 2050: $8.8 trillion Percent of world trade: 3.1%

Indonesia makes the list for the first time in 2050, driven by trade with China, Japan and the European Union.

Source: Citigroup

#5 Korea

#5 Korea

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Trade in 2050: $9.7 trillion Percent of world trade: 3.4%

At $1.05 trillion Korea accounted for 2.8% of world trade in 2010.  By 2030, this figure is set to rise to $4.7 trillion and account for 3.8% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

#4 Germany

#4 Germany

Image: AP

Trade in 2050: $9.9 trillion Percent of world trade: 3.5%

At $2.86 trillion Germany accounted for 7.6% of world trade in 2010. While trade is projected to rise to $5.8 trillion in 2030, it will account for just 4.7% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

#3 USA

#3 USA

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Trade in 2050: $19.1 trillion Percent of world trade: 6.6%

The U.S. which is the current global leader in trade, accounting for a massive 10.7% of world trade, is set to account for only 8.2% of world trade in 2030. The U.S. is expected to lose ground to India and China.

Source: Citigroup

#2 India

#2 India

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Trade in 2050: $25.7 trillion Percent of world trade: 9%

India which doesn’t make the top 10 countries by trade in 2010, is set to account for 2.8% of world trade in 2015, and 5.6% in 2030.

Source: Citigroup

#1 China

#1 China

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Read more stories at Business Insider.

Another hot story: How the iPhone Got Tail Fins – Part Two>>

More from The Cheat Sheet