Treasuries Closer to Signaling All Clear to Go Long Equities
US Treasuries have been a great indicator of risk sentiment in the market. Once the 20 year note (as represented by the TLTs) broke a long-standing downtrend line in mid-April, traders received a signal that money was seeking the safety offered by US government debt. This signal was confirmed when Treasuries spiked higher during the Flash Crash and proceeded to make higher highs as the market made lower lows.
This latest move appears to be the first significant lower high in the wake of the market turmoil that started in late April. As such, it provides a good risk/reward opportunity to enter equities from the long side. A key tell for further confirmation will be if/when the TLTs can trade through their recent low in the $98 area and add a lower low to the lower high. Should that happen, there would be concrete confirmation for investors to shift money from areas of safety and back into risk assets like equities.