This is a guest post by Denis Ouellet at News to Use.
U.S. economic data are firming up and numerous forecasters have admitted being surprised by the vigor of certain indicators. Speculators too are taking note. Using just-released data from the CFTC, we estimate that total net short positions on the USD stood at only $6.2 billion for the week ended August 15.1 Short positions have been trimmed by a whopping $20 billion in the last two weeks alone.
As today’s Hot Chart shows, this is the largest reduction since the summer 2008 when safe-heaven flows rushed into the greenback. What is interesting this time around is that interest in the dollar is not dominated by market fears; equity markets are holding up and credit spreads continue to tighten. In our view, current flows reflects the realization that the U.S. economy may actually outperform many of its pears in the coming months.
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