Weekly Unemployment Claims Still Above This Scary Level

The Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. Claims fell 44,000 from a 4,000 upward revision of the previous week, which takes the number back to approximately the level prior to last week’s blip. Here is the official statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending May 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 434,000, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 436,750, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 432,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending April 30, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 30 was 3,756,000, an increase of 5,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,751,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,718,500, an increase of 13,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,705,250.

Today’s number was 11,000 above theĀ Briefing.com consensus estimate of 423,000 claims.

As we can see, there’s a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (shown in the callouts) is a more useful number than the weekly data.

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Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author’s bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

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Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, a 52-week moving average gives a better sense of the long-term trends.

weekly unemployment 52 ma

The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides an overview on seasonal adjustment here (scroll down about half way down).

Doug Short Ph.d is the author of dshort.com.

Learn More with Econ 101: Your Ultimate Cheat Sheet to Unemployment Numbers.