What Will Tesla Motors Do Post Earnings?

With shares of Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) trading around $153, is TSLA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Tesla Motors designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and electric vehicle powertrain components. The company also provides services for the development of electric powertrain systems and components, and sells electric powertrain components to other automotive manufacturers. It markets and sells its vehicles through Tesla stores, as well as over the Internet. Consumers and companies are looking to save at the pump, and what better way than with electric vehicles? The vehicles that Tesla Motors is producing are easy on the eyes and the pocket.

Tesla Motors posted earnings and revenue figures that beat Wall Street’s expectations. The revenue beat is a positive sign to investors who seek high growth out of the company. Look for Tesla Motors to see increasing demand, as consumers and companies opt for its vehicles over traditional ones.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Tesla Motors stock has seen a consistent uptrend since its initial public offering in 2010. The stock is now trading at all-time high prices and still does not see any signs of slowing. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Tesla Motors is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

TSLA

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Tesla Motors options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Tesla Motors Options

63.24%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

August Options

Flat

Average

September Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Tesla Motors’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Tesla Motors look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

105.62%

113.95%

-1.27%

-66.67%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

1420.08%

1762.78%

677.88%

-13.13%

Earnings Reaction

14.69%*

24.39%

-8.77%

8.92%

Tesla Motors has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been excited with Tesla Motors’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Tesla Motors stock done relative to its peers, General Motors (NYSE:GM), Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), Ford Motor (NYSE:F), and sector?

Tesla Motors

General Motors

Toyota Motor

Ford Motor

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

363.40%

24.59%

37.43%

30.81%

29.82%

Tesla Motors has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Tesla Motors offers aesthetic electric vehicles during a time where consumers and companies are looking to minimize their carbon footprint and ease the impact on their pockets. A recent earnings announcement has investors flocking to buy more stock. The stock has been on an explosive run and is now trading near all-time high prices. Over the last four quarters, investors have been very excited as earnings have been mixed and revenue figures have been rising. Relative to its peers and sector, Tesla Motors has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Tesla Motors to OUTPERFORM.

Using a solid investing framework such as this can help improve your stock-picking skills. Don’t waste another minute — click here and get our CHEAT SHEET stock picks now.

More from The Cheat Sheet