Where Will Disney Go Next?

With shares of Disney (NYSE:DIS) trading around $79, is DIS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework.

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Disney is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The company operates in five business segments: media networks, parks and resorts, studio entertainment, consumer products, and interactive. Disney offers entertainment that sends smiles to consumers across a range of countries around the world. Its movies and shows, theme parks, and products have remained a main attraction for many years and will continue well into the future.

Disney has acquired Maker Studios for $500 million, with an additional $450 million waiting for Maker’s founders and backers if certain conditions are met. The acquisition was first reported by Reuters on Monday, following reports about negotiations between the two companies a few weeks ago. Maker is one of a number of so-called multichannel networks (MCNs) on YouTube, which means it operates as well as partners with a number of popular channels on the video site. Maker’s YouTube channels have more than 4.5 billion monthly video views and more than 340 million subscribers.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Disney stock has been flying higher in recent years. However, the stock is currently pulling back and may need time to consolidate. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Disney is trading above its rising key averages, which signals neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

DIS

Source: Thinkorswim

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Disney options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Disney options

23.92%

80%

78%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

April Options

Flat

Average

May Options

Flat

Average

As of Tuesday, there is average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Disney’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Disney look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q4

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

33.77%

13.24%

0%

31.75%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

8.55%

7.29%

4.42%

9.61%

Earnings Reaction

5.29%

2.12%

-1.70%

-0.12%

Disney has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Disney’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Disney stock done relative to its peers – Dreamworks (NASDAQ:DWA), Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), and 21st Century (NASDAQ:FOXA) — and sector?

Disney

Dreamworks

Time Warner

21st Century

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

3.42%

-26.20%

-7.19%

-8.13%

-2.96%

Disney has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Disney is a global entertainment company that aims to deliver smiles to many consumers worldwide. The company has acquired Maker Studios for $500 million. The stock has seen a strong run in recent years but is now pulling back. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been rising, which has investors pleased with the company. Relative to its peers and sector, Disney has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Disney to OUTPERFORM.

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